The following is a 3 message exchange between 3 users
@LeftLeaningJohnRepublican3mos3MO
The loans coming due are at low interest rates - 3% - they must be taken out by loans at 7%-8% - this negative arbitrage is bad in 2024 and worse in 2025.
2. Commercial property prices have dropped due to comparable worry free investments like bonds becoming more appealing
3. Banks can only restructure/write down a certain % of loans before the FDIC takes action and they have restrictions put on them or are shut down. You are looking at almost all commercial loans being refinance every 5 years. So about 40% of all commercial real estate loan...
@XfactorQuailDemocrat3mos3MO
Agreed, also there is a major impact on municipalities due to revenue losses (from devaluation of property as well as cascading losses from dormant assets, not to mention loss of current and future revenue from lost new construction) followed by the impact on municipal bonds.
@LeftLeaningJohnRepublican3mos3MO
How and when the pain hits is not clear. Bank's can avoid disclosure: Extending evergreen loans despite good cash flow, failing to recognize the collateral as insufficient to cover the loan, hiding the extent of the problem in their financial statements; regulators hesitating on requiring management to confront their problems; accounting firms allowing management to explain away problem loans; FDIC changing rules to account for pandemic and interest rate challenges; the FED providing liquidity to banks at an unprecedented level. It was a surprise that SVB and Signature bank imploded quickly, primarily from liquidity issues, but the challenges in the banking industry are extensive and I believe, not well recognized. Many of the points above are being used so that this year or next year may morph to some future date.
